Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 18.375282 22.199290 26.418674 31.392643 37.067720 43.312909 50.676214
2025-09-07 12.957579 17.974807 24.090078 31.971222 41.730028 53.286069 67.863305
2025-09-14 9.433040 14.704653 21.675940 31.308780 43.990455 59.822589 80.756852
2025-09-21 7.575182 13.045620 20.788175 32.101524 47.720547 68.012100 95.788795
2025-09-28 5.602309 10.730139 18.519574 30.559533 47.971889 71.469230 104.693177
2025-10-05 4.756255 9.937303 18.265231 31.710619 51.849806 79.801675 120.266468
2025-10-12 4.014213 9.140733 17.845043 32.487868 55.143156 87.400382 135.094406
2025-10-19 3.387516 8.401527 17.380416 33.085188 58.126184 94.622571 149.623666
2025-10-26 2.913102 7.840097 17.114675 33.925388 61.464773 102.441408 165.235245
2025-11-02 2.358661 6.976406 16.173353 33.512187 62.761574 107.255350 176.654755
2025-11-09 1.974235 6.382562 15.630638 33.693388 64.962699 113.453976 190.250000
2025-11-16 1.605621 5.721283 14.848305 33.344742 66.226165 118.221862 201.836809
2025-11-23 1.205948 4.878584 13.617156 32.151473 66.176008 121.246625 211.420595
2025-11-30 1.006898 4.520145 13.361506 32.787792 69.332363 129.524820 229.417939
2025-12-07 0.768768 3.940985 12.497470 32.115343 70.104346 133.968150 241.616391
2025-12-14 0.649806 3.700533 12.379761 32.924133 73.565152 142.912170 261.124145
2025-12-21 0.457371 3.083520 11.197746 31.351287 72.499136 144.257370 268.590279
2025-12-28 0.397505 2.965244 11.287198 32.525451 76.655131 154.538940 290.688459
2026-01-04 0.334954 2.799116 11.212725 33.318176 80.109679 163.733459 311.276635
2026-01-11 0.277703 2.621100 11.067801 33.927335 83.226510 172.441151 331.300578
2026-01-18 0.234832 2.489343 11.032917 34.784107 86.869879 182.181377 353.280190
2026-01-25 0.176631 2.214155 10.492301 34.362767 87.899067 187.326293 367.741106
2026-02-01 0.139299 2.034001 10.213794 34.547540 90.162721 194.732276 386.172199